Chinese Nuclear Proliferation
Including Canadian Dimensions
Notes for Remarks by David B. Harris,
President and CEO, Democracy House
to the
Canadian Coalition
for Democracies’
10 June 2008, Room 200,
West Block, House of Commons,
- DRAFT NOTES ONLY; CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY -
(1) Nuclear weapons, related material, and their proliferation, constitute a grave and growing danger.
Many consequences of nuclear detonations are well
known: blast effect, searing heat, ionizing radiation.
We’re warned of nuclear winter.
(2) ElectroMagnetic Pulse
The implications of electromagnetic pulse (EMP)
effect, an especially devastating consequence of high-altitude nuclear
explosions of over one megaton yield, were largely secret before 1997.
That year, and in some legislative forums, thereafter, increasing heed was paid
to the threat to society and entire nation-states, represented by EMP.
Dr. Lowell Wood of the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory was among a number of
experts to warn of this in testimony before US congressional bodies. Expert
predictions indicate that EMP would return the
Electromagnetic
pulses, EMP, generated by high-altitude nuclear explosions have riveted the
attention of the military nuclear tactical community for three-and-a-half
decades since the first comparatively modest one very unexpectedly turned off
the lights over a few million square miles in the mid-Pacific. This EMP also
shut down radio stations, turned off cars, burned out telephone systems, and
wreaked other mischief throughout the
The potential for even a single high-altitude explosion
of a more deliberate character to impose continental-scale devastation of much
of the equipment of modern civilization and of modern warfare soon became
clear. EMP became a technological substrate for the black humor:
Suppose they gave a war and nobody came.
It was EMP-imposed wreckage, at least as much as that
due to blast, fire, and fallout, which sobered detail studies of the
post-nuclear-attack recovery process. When essentially nothing electrical or
electronic could be relied upon to work, even in rural areas far from the
blast, it appeared surpassingly difficult to bootstrap American national
recovery, and post-attack America in these studies remained stuck in the very
early 20th century until electrical equipment and electronic components begin
to trickle into a Jeffersonian America from
abroad.{United States House of Representatives, Committee on National Security,
Military Research and Development Subcommittee, “Threat Posed by
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) to U.S. Military Systems and Civil Infrastructure,”
commdocs.house.gov, 16 July 1997, http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/security/has197010.000/has197010_1.HTM
(accessed 17 April 2008). [Remarks by Dr. Lowell Wood of the
Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, in which he describes the serious and widespread
consequences of the electromagnetic pulse that might result from a
high-altitude detonation of a nuclear weapon.}
(3) In light of this, civilization must put an end to nuclear proliferation, before nuclear proliferation puts an end to civilization.
(4) The People’s Republic of
(5)
a. General
David
Martin (at ccnr) says that
George Tenet, “DCI Before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,” cia.gov, 28 January 1998, https://www.cia.gov/news-information/speeches-testimony/1998/dci_speech_012898.html (accessed 6 June 2008):
Chinese and Russian assistance to proliferant countries requires particular attention, despite signs of progress. My statement for the record provides the details but some key points should be made here.
With regard to
On the positive side, there have recently been some signs of improvement in
But
Apartheid
b.
Mid-‘80s: PRC sells tritium to Pak. Tritium is used in
hydrogen-bomb triggers and to increase fission-bomb yields. [Nuclear Control Institute, “
(Per David Martin at ccnr:) In 1991 China Nuclear
Energy Industry Corp (CNEIC, a subsidiary of CNNC) sold a 300 MW PWR based on
Qinshan-1 to
1993: US sanctions PRC for selling M-11 nuclear capable ballistic missiles to Pak.
1995: Pak. receives 5,000 PRC ring magnets of a type
used in Pak’s high-speed uranium-enriching gas centrifuges. [Nuclear
Control Institute, “
CIA’s 1997 report declares that, "
The Kahuta complex was originally
built using technology stolen from the Urenco corporation in the mid-1970s. This illicit trade was clearly
a violation by China China
acceded to the NPT in 1992, but Pakistan China ,
Indonesia , Romania , Korea ,
Turkey
c.
Director of Central Intelligence, “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions [1 January – 30 June 2003],” cia.gov, 30 April 2007, https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/archived-reports-1/jan_jun2003.htm (accessed 6 June 2008):
Nuclear. In October 1997,
Although
Thanks
to IAEA statements, there is little doubt that
(6) Supplying of certain non-nuclear
weapons can be considered a material contribution to proliferation.
Example: PRC “defensive” missiles have been transferred to
(7)
(8) Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL)
AECL Qinshan contract signed
with the China National Nuclear Corporation for two 728-megawatt nuclear
reactors southeast of
2.4.1.3. Advanced Fuel Cycles (Plutonium et al.)
As part of its sales pitch for the CANDU, AECL is advertising the fact that CANDU has "fuel cycle flexibility". AECL has determined that CANDU can be used with a variety of low fissile fuels that would create an advanced fuel cycle that could function in tandem with PWRs. The advanced fuel cycle proposals are designed to increase uranium utilization and to appeal to countries without significant uranium reserves. Unfortunately, as with the most common advanced fuel cycle (reprocessing to separate plutonium) there are increased proliferation, safety and environmental risks.
For example, the Recovered Uranium (RU) advanced fuel cycle for the CANDU uses the waste product from LWR spent fuel reprocessing after the plutonium has been removed. It could also be mixed with plutonium to form a mixed oxide fuel. These technologies have significant proliferation risks.
Also promoted is the "DUPIC" cycle, which stands for "Direct Use of Spent Fuel in CANDU". This technology would at its simplest introduce LWR spent fuel elements into CANDU fuel channels, or the spent fuel could be re- fabricated into CANDU fuel. While the DUPIC cycle would not involve 'wet' chemical reprocessing, the refabrication (involving as it does highly radioactive spent fuel) would require much of the remote robotics and other technology necessary in reprocessing, and would thus carry some proliferation risk. Clearly the reprocessing of spent fuel will also involve safety and environmental risks.
In early 1991, AECL and the Korea Atomic Energy
Research Institute (KAERI) signed an agreement to jointly develop the
"CANFLEX" CANDU fuel bundle. [202] A
modified version of the standard CANDU fuel bundle, the CANFLEX has outer
elements that are smaller in diameter, necessary for the more extended burn-up
time for the use of Slightly Enriched Uranium (SEU), as opposed to the Natural
Uranium (NU) that is typically used in CANDUs. In
November 1991 AECL and KAERI signed another agreement to jointly explore the
DUPIC fuel cycle. {David Martin,
Exporting Disaster, ch. 2, “
(9) In light of the history
and reality of PRC proliferation, Canadians must ask whether AECL or other
Canadian nuclear cooperation with
(10)
Bearing all of the foregoing in mind,
Select Bibliography (With Excerpts)
Asian Pacific Post, “A.Q. Khan,” asianpacificpost.com, 5 February 2004, http://www.asianpacificpost.com/portal2/402881910674ebab010674f49cd411e5.do.html (accessed 7 June 2008).
Asian Pacific Post, “Canada-trained Pakistani nuclear scientists 'defecting',” asianpacificpost.com, 16 January 2003, http://www.asianpacificpost.com/portal2/402881910674ebab010674f4a1e6122d.do.html (accessed 7 June 2008).
Asian Pacific Post, Editorial, “How
you were kept in the dark to give
06-10-10, Asian Pacific Post, “
Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, “AECL Awarded Preventative Maintenance Contract For Qinshan Power Plant In China,” aecl.ca, 10 August 2007, http://www.aecl.ca/NewsRoom/News/Press-2007/070810.htm (accessed 8 June 2008).
Atomic Energy of Canada Limited,
“AECL Signs Memorandum of Understanding with
Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, “Candu 6,” aecl.ca, n.d., http://www.aecl.ca/Reactors/CANDU6.htm (accessed 9 June 2008).
CANDU 6 is AECL's 700 MWe class nuclear power reactor. The first CANDU 6 plants went into service in the early 1980s as leading-edge technology, and the design has continuously evolved since to maintain superior technology and performance.
It was licensed in
the early 1980s in
· Technical Summary
- [4920KB]
CANDU Reactors Around the World
|
|
Gentilly 2 |
1 unit |
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|
|
4 units |
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|
|
8 units |
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Bruce |
8 units |
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Point Lepreau |
1 unit |
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Embalse |
1 unit |
|
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Cernavoda |
2 units |
|
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Wolsong |
4 units |
|
People’s Republic of |
Qinshan |
2 units |
|
|
RAPS |
2 units |
|
|
KANUPP |
1 unit |
Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, “Partners,” aecl.ca, http://www.aecl.ca/About/Partners.htm (accessed 9 June 2008).
United States House of Representatives, Committee on
National Security, Military Research and Development Subcommittee, “Threat
Posed by Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) to U.S. Military Systems and Civil
Infrastructure,” commdocs.house.gov, 16 July 1997, http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/security/has197010.000/has197010_1.HTM
(accessed 17 April 2008). Dr. Lowell Wood of the
Electromagnetic pulses, EMP, generated by high-altitude nuclear
explosions have riveted the attention of the military nuclear tactical
community for three-and-a-half decades since the first comparatively modest one
very unexpectedly turned off the lights over a few million square miles in the
mid-Pacific. This EMP also shut down radio stations, turned off cars, burned
out telephone systems, and wreaked other mischief throughout the
The potential for even a single high-altitude explosion
of a more deliberate character to impose continental-scale devastation of much
of the equipment of modern civilization and of modern warfare soon became clear.
EMP became a technological substrate for the black humor:
Suppose they gave a war and nobody came.
It was EMP-imposed wreckage, at least as much as that
due to blast, fire, and fallout, which sobered detail studies of the
post-nuclear-attack recovery process. When essentially nothing electrical or
electronic could be relied upon to work, even in rural areas far from the
blast, it appeared surpassingly difficult to bootstrap American national
recovery, and post-attack
For obvious reasons, the entire topic of EMP was highly
classified and associated congressional oversight was generally circumspect and
conducted entirely in closed session. Indeed, this is the first even partly
open session of congressional oversight devoted to the EMP topic which I recall, ...]
Dr. George W. Ullrich,
EMP
is highly dependent on the gamma ray output of the weapon, as we have seen. The
downward-streaming gamma rays collide with the air molecules, producing high
energy electrons in a process called
For example, if a megaton class weapon were to be
detonated 400 kilometers above
The frequency range of the pulse is enormously wide,
from below 1 hertz to 1 gigahertz, enabling the energy to simultaneously couple
to individual electronic components, small components, larger system
components, as well as distributed long-line conductors.
Page 22 PREV PAGE TOP OF DOC Segment 2 Of 2
One of our earliest experiences with high-altitude EMP
dates back to the resumption of atmospheric nuclear testing in 1962 following a
3-year testing moratorium.
During that brief return to atmospheric testing,
Starfish Prime, a 1.4 megaton detonation conducted over
We have recently learned that Soviet scientists
observed similar disruptions following their high-altitude tests. In one test,
all protective devices and overhead communication lines were damaged at
distances out to 500 kilometers. The same event saw a
1,000 kilometer segment of power line essentially
shut down by these effects.
Over the years, we have come to understand how to
provide effective protection against the effects of EMP. The basic approach is
to envelop the entire system with a integral metallic
shield to exclude externally generated electromagnetic fields from the
interior. Additionally, all mechanical and electrical penetrations through the
shield must be protected.
For example, electrical penetration such as antennas
and power connections must be equipped with filters and surge arresters.
Windows must be coated with wire mesh or conductive coatings. Doors and utility
ports must be sealed with conductive gaskets.
EMP hardening protocols are described in numerous
military standards and handbooks. There are user friendly computer codes
available to facilitate system hardness design. EMP is well understood.
Page 23 PREV PAGE TOP OF DOC Segment 2 Of 2
A particularly good news story is that EMP protection
can be quite affordable. If EMP hardening is built in from the start, the cost
of EMP hardening is a relatively small fraction of the overall system's cost,
approximately 1 to 5 percent. Done after the fact, when the unprotected system
has been already fielded, it can be significantly more expensive.
To further explore cost reduction opportunities, my
agency has an effort under way to develop integrated hardening techniques that
provide protection against multiple hazards. Our initial work focuses on
integrated protection against both high-altitude EMP and high-power microwaves.
For EMP testing purposes, the DOD currently operates a
suite of simulators capable of large area, threat level field illumination.
Also employed are direct current injection techniques and continuous-wave
low-level illumination to evaluate shield integrity and energy coupling
efficiency. While some EMP simulator facilities have been mothballed over the
years, those that remain meet both present and projected customer needs.
To summarize, high-altitude EMP is real and well
understood. We know how to harden to it—we know how to test it. High-altitude
EMP hardening can be achieved at an affordable cost; I mentioned numbers of 1
to 5 percent.
On a final note, high-altitude EMP does not distinguish
between military and civilian systems. Unhardened infrastructure systems, such
as commercial power grids, telecommunication networks, as we have discussed
before, remain vulnerable to widespread outages and upsets due to high-altitude
EMP. While DOD hardens their assets it deems vital, no comparable civilian
programs exist. Thus the detonation of one or a few high-altitude nuclear
weapons could result in serious problems for the entire
Nuclear Control Institute, “
Director of Central Intelligence, “Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions [1 January – 30 June 2003],” cia.gov, 30 April 2007, https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/archived-reports-1/jan_jun2003.htm (accessed 6 June 2008):
Over the past several years,
Nuclear. In October 1997,
Ballistic Missile. In November 2000,
Although
Chemical. Since 1997, the
Advanced Conventional Weapons. During the first half of
2003,
Paul McKay, Ottawa Citizen, “
Peter W. Rodman, “Military Dimensions of
{P}In the early 1990s, Deng Xiaoping enunciated what is often called the
“24 Character Strategy,” a set of maxims that have often been quoted by Chinese
strategists since then: “observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs
calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low
profile; and never claim leadership.” This suggests a desire to downplay
ambition in the near term and a patient long-term strategy to build up
Elaine
Shannon, “Iran
George Tenet, “DCI Before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,” cia.gov, 28 January 1998, https://www.cia.gov/news-information/speeches-testimony/1998/dci_speech_012898.html (accessed 6 June 2008).
08-05-20, United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission, “China’s Proliferation Practices,” Hearings, Statement of Henry Sokolski, uscc.gov, 20 May 2008, http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2008hearings/written_testimonies/08_05_20_wrts/08_05_20_sokolski_statement.php (accessed 25 May 2008).
Wikipedia, “