|
Sat, November 10, 2007
Pakistan has been in the downward spiral of a political meltdown for some time now.
The big question is whether this spiral can be contained and reversed, even as terrorist violence escalates.
The emergency rule declared last week by President General Pervez
Musharraf, if viewed charitably, is a preventive measure taken against
the country sliding deeper into anarchy. This is what the president
contends. Musharraf's opponents inside Pakistan,
plus the Bush administration, disagree and view the suspension of
normal political activity -- with the postponement of January elections
-- as possibly worsening the country's domestic plight. The military under Musharraf following the
coup of October 1999, and historically since Pakistan's independence,
sees itself as the guardian of order saving the country from the abuses
of corrupt and inept politicians whenever they held power.
The strategic location of Pakistan in a resource rich (oil) and yet
volatile region of southwest Asia meant that military rulers, though
distasteful to democratic sensibilities, were given the nod by
Washington, which prefers order and stability over the uncertainties of
democratic politics. The thinking in Washington changed
dramatically after 9/11 with the Bush administration publicly pushing
for democracy in the Middle East to effectively disarm the appeal of
Muslim fundamentalists and the cohorts of Islamist terrorists behind
them. INDISPENSABLE ALLY
In the war against terror Pakistan is an indispensable ally of the
United States, but as a country under military rule the situation is
disagreeable to the Bush administration's democratic agenda for the
Arab-Muslim world. The demand made by the Bush administration
on Pakistan and its military to eliminate domestically based Islamist
organizations and foreign terrorist groups -- Taliban and al Qaida --
from sanctuary within the country, or be labelled as a terrorist state,
has been deeply divisive. Pakistan's support for the Afghan freedom
fighters in the war against the former Soviet Union, and then for the
Taliban regime, was consistent with its self image as a Muslim country
striving to build an Islamic state and society. The shared obsession of most Pakistanis is
with India, a Hindu majority country, against which three wars and many
skirmishes have been fought and lost. The entire thinking of the Pakistani
military establishment has been focused on confronting India and,
consequently, the military was unprepared and poorly motivated to fight
Islamist terrorists. The result shows. Pakistani soldiers have
been killed and taken hostage by terrorists despite the superiority of
arms and logistics. Moreover, it remains an open question
whether the military's rank and file will fight the terrorists as the
senior officer corps under Musharraf's command insist they do. The uncertainties of Pakistani politics
are further compounded by the fear that the military establishment
might not be able to guarantee the security of the country's nuclear
weapons if the meltdown of the state accelerates, or unhinged elements
in the society provoke a conflict with India to subvert the fight
against the terrorists. In the eight years of Musharraf's rule
Pakistan's political situation has worsened even though economic
indicators have been generally favourable. HOLD IT TOGETHER
The odds are that Musharraf's time is over, and he probably will be
replaced by another general promising a quick return to democracy,
while letting politicians scramble to come up with an effective policy
of holding the country together in the face of mounting terrorist
violence. And then the cycle of military rule likely will be repeated.
Previous story: Not black and white
Next story: Letters to the Editor Column
|
